Guide
Will there be power cuts this winter?
The short answer
A national shortage is unlikely. NESO’s Winter Outlook for 2026/27 calls margins adequate and in line with recent winters. Local power cuts from faults and storms still happen every winter, and nobody can warn you about those.
What NESO says
- Spare capacity: 5.9 GW at an average cold-spell peak, or 9.5%.
- Expected shortfall: below 0.1 hours a year, against a 3-hour standard.
- Tight days: the daily chance of the market’s supply falling below NESO’s reserve requirement stays under 2% on every day, though a few such days are expected over the roughly 150-day winter.
- When: the tightest days are most likely on weekday evenings in December or January.
Read the original on NESO’s website. Grid Alert isn’t affiliated with NESO.
A tight day isn’t a power cut
On a tight evening NESO has several steps before anyone’s supply is touched. It usually starts with a routine Electricity Margin Notice, which is nearly always cancelled. Controlled cuts for households would be a last resort.
Worth doing anyway
There’s no need to stock up. A few small things cover most winter power cuts of any kind:
- Find your rota letter on your electricity bill.
- Keep a torch and a charged power bank where you can find them.
- Save 105, the free number to call in a power cut.
- If someone at home relies on powered medical equipment, join your network operator’s free Priority Services Register.
Be the first to know
Grid Alert turns NESO’s official warnings into one clear status for your home. It’s coming this winter, free on Android and iPhone.
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